ICICI Direct: Weekly Equity Pulse

Previous Week

The Indian equity market, after three weeks of consecutive rise fell during the previous week due to weak global cues, mainly from China. However, the week started on a positive note, after witnessing a highly choppy and range bound trading for the next couple of days, the market fell significantly during the last couple of days, losing an average of 2.5% each day.

On a week-on-week basis, the BSE Sensex plunged 510 points or 3.25% to close at 15160.24. The S&P CNX Nifty ended at 4481.4, down by 155 points or 3.3%. Better-than-expected results for most major companies across the globe so far have been supporting the market to remain strong. During this week, however, indications that China may restrict lending, deteriorating monsoon in major parts of India, some weaker-than-expected global economic data and a very high valuation for the market attracted profit booking. This further accelerated, as both important indices breached some important levels. Auto, Realty and Metals remained among the top losers in the previous week.

Week Ahead

After rallying significantly for the last five months with only one correction in between, the market is likely to pause for some time. We saw this during the previous week. It would be interesting to note whether the previous week's fall was only a breather or it has the potential to drag the market further. This would be clear in the coming week.

The recent rally was mainly driven by better prospects of economic recovery in emerging markets, mainly China and India. Some indication of restrictions in lending and over-valuation of some sectors, coupled with skepticism on the latest consumption of certain raw materials raised concerns over the potential of the rally. This attracted profit booking. Though some occasional buying may emerge at lower levels, the market is likely to maintain its weaker undertone in the coming week also.

Pick of the Week

Buy Harrison Malayalam Ltd (HARMAL) CMP: Rs. 82.5/- Target: Rs.91/- Potential upside: 10%. Time frame: 3 months.

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