ICICI Direct: Weekly Equity Pulse

Previous week: Indian equity market after previous week’s range bound movement broke down in the week ended, March 6, 2009. The market saw a sharp gap down opening in the very first day of the week on bleak global cues. A surprise cut in policy rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) failed to lift spirits on the bourses with the Sensex tumbling to 3-year closing lows. Sustained selling by foreign funds, weak rupee and weak European markets weighed on the market sentiment. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) led the decline. FMCG, banking and capital goods stocks were the major losers during the week.

Week Ahead :Indian market is likely to be influenced by movements in global equities and foreign institutional investor activity in the holiday shortened week, market will remains shut on Tuesday, March 10, 2009 for Id-E-Milad and Wednesday March 11, 2009 for the Holi festival. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) outflow in February 2009 totaled Rs. 2707 crore. FII outflow in calendar year 2009 stood at Rs. 8519.30 crore (till March, 4 2009). Investors will closely watch the US jobs data to be unveiled on Friday, March 6, 2009 and also on the Advance Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims to be announced on March 12, 2009. On the domestic data in the coming week market will keep a close watch at the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to be unveiled on Thursday, March 12, 2009. Broad undertone for the market still remains weak overall and further weakening of global economic data would worsen the situation.