ICICI Direct Weekly Equity Pulse

Previous Week

Indian markets resumed their rally again last week and made a new high in 2009. The week started with a very strong undertone backed by a positive surprise from the IIP data that showed a jump of 10.4% YoY for August. Despite being a holiday-shortened week, trading volumes did not fall. On the last day also the market closed with a positive undertone.

On a week-on-week basis, the BSE Sensex rose 680 points or 4.1% to close at 17322.82. The S&P CNX Nifty, on the other hand, finished the week at 5142.15, up by 200 points or 4%. So far, during this current earning season, companies have reported decent numbers providing further support to the market undertone. Global markets also remained supportive due to some better-than-expected numbers reported during the last week.

Week Ahead

The market breadth has been quite positive in the last few weeks despite some minor corrections. The economic scenario has also been improving at least in terms of released data. The foreign capital inflow too has been robust so far with FIIs net buying reaching about US$13 billion. This is the amount, which they took from the Indian markets last year. However, one concern going around the market is the inflationary scenario. Though last week’s reported headline inflation for the week ended October 3 showed a surprise drop, it is expected to go up, going forward. This, along with better IIP numbers may help the RBI to decide on raising interest rates maybe during the year-end. Any early step may prove to be a sentiment dampener. At current levels, the market is looking somewhat overbought. This can also attract some profit booking. Thus, this market at these levels has become more of a trading market and one should look for right trading opportunities. The coming week will again be a holiday-shortened week and the direction is likely to be dependent on global market movements.

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